“I think if you had problems with the current Conservatives, you ain’t seen nothing yet."
John Church, an associate professor in political science at the University of Alberta, was referring to Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party, the ultra-conservative alternative to the province's Progressive Conservative Premier, Alison Redford. According to Church, a Wildrose majority in Alberta will mean even less standing in the way of the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline.
“If the Wildrose Party wins a majority, there will be more ideological alignment between the government of Alberta and Ottawa, as we’ve seen for some time," he said. "And that will mean that environmental regulations in Alberta will likely be softened, particularly in relation to developments in oil and gas.”
Alberta's ultra-conservative Wildrose Party on climate change
Smith’s views on climate change have become a particularly contentious subject this week, after she stated her belief that the “science isn’t settled” over human causes of global warming. Incumbent leader Redford, on the other hand, at least recognizes the fact that climate change is a “real issue on the international stage” and that it has an important impact on energy production and on Alberta’s reputation.
Mike Hudema, an Edmonton-based climate and energy campaigner with Greenpeace Canada, says recent revelations about the provincial frontrunner (nicknamed “Dani the Denier”) are extremely unsettling.
“We learned just days ago that Danielle Smith still believes that the science on climate change is out, that there should be no real government involvement when it comes to regulating the tar sands industry, and that these projects should move forward as fast as market forces should carry them,” Hudema told the Observer, echoing sentiments he expressed in a Greenpeace blog post earlier this week.
“All of those are very scary prospects for anybody that cares about the environment, that cares about communities, that cares about health—because all signs point to really unregulated tar sands development.”
Hudema says the possibility of having a climate skeptic as the next premier will not only hurt environmental policy, but could also be severely detrimental to the province’s international reputation.
“I think Alberta is under an international and national microscope, because of our completely abysmal green record. We have the highest emissions in the entire country, we’re nowhere close to meeting any of our obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and of course we see large-scale tar sands development that’s destroying large portions of our province,” he explained.
With recent polls placing Smith ahead of Redford—42 per cent of decided voters side with Wildrose over 36 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives—environmentalists like Hudema are preparing for the worst.
“You’ll see a government that is very much, even more so than today, a cheerleader for the tar sands industry that is trying to push pipelines and tankers through BC as quickly as possible,” he said.
At least with Redford’s Conservatives, Hudema added, there’s a recognition that environmental problems exist, and they say they will take steps to mitigate some of them. But he said that doesn’t change the fact that the Conservatives’ track record is “horrible” with regards to the environment.
“They do recognize that they need to take some steps, if only to stave off international criticism. And I think that’s something that Danielle Smith and the Wildrose party don’t seem to care about,” he said.
Comparing the candidates
For the first time in four decades, there’s a new party poised to take over from the Alberta Conservatives. According to Church, some Alberta voters see the long-reigning PC party as “drunk with power”, and now it appears people are ready for a change. But unlike provinces such as BC and Ontario, where an occasional switch from left to right is not unheard of, Alberta’s (realistic) options always tend to be on the same end of the political spectrum.
“It’s like right, right, right. It’s like being on a traffic circle that you’re only driving one direction,” said Church.
As a result, the struggling Conservatives this week launched a last-ditch effort to sway left-leaning voters to Redford—if only as a “lesser evil” than the Wildrose. The Alberta Liberals, led by MLA Raj Sherman, and the provincial NDP under leader Brian Mason both sit at under ten per cent in the polls, as does the Alberta Party at just two per cent.
Apart from the topic of the oil sands—which the leaders have been accused of avoiding during this campaign—health care is one of the big issues on voters' minds. Frustrated Albertans say they're fed up with lengthy wait times, and competitors claim that the current PC government is “bullying” doctors. On the other side, the Wildrose Party has come under fire because of an anti-gay blog post by one of the candidates, as well as for a comment by another candidate who said he felt he had an advantage because he was Caucasian.
Here are a few points on how the two leading candidates stack up on some other key election issues:
Danielle Smith – Wildrose
- Promises to eliminate deficit and increase oil sands royalties to boost the province’s Heritage Savings Trust Fund to $200 billion within 20 years
- Would address climate issues with tax credits to encourage citizens to make individual lifestyle changes, rather than broader policy action
- Is looking at possible tax incentives to encourage private investment for processing bitumen in-province, as opposed to shipping it out raw
- Also spoke about shipping oil east to other provinces, given the resistance to pipelines going west and south
- Wants to dismantle the existing Alberta Health Services and decentralize health care to locally-managed hospitals and facilities
- Would implement laws to protect “conscience rights”, allowing marriage commissioners to refuse to solemnize marriages for gay or lesbian couples
Alison Redford – Progressive Conservatives
- Wants to seek Albertans’ input on the future of the Heritage Savings Trust Fund
- Pledges to work with the federal government on coal-fired regulations to help decrease carbon emissions
- Would implement a “Pan-Canadian Energy Strategy” to encourage inter-jurisdictional cooperation on energy policy and regulation
- Promises to build a province-wide health network to help improve service and decrease wait times